In the middle of the economic recovery, the scarcity of raw materials worldwide and increasing costs are hindering the production of pet food in Mexico. Several manufacturers are currently having a hard time finding inputs such as oils, packaging and corn. As inflation is rising everywhere in the developed world and in emerging markets, one logical expectation for the pet food industry is that prices would eventually go up proportionally.
在经济复苏的中期,全球原材料的稀缺和成本的增加正在阻碍墨西哥宠物食品的生产。一些制造商目前很难找到油、包装和玉米等投入品。由于发达国家和新兴市场的通货膨胀率都在上升,对宠物食品行业的一个合乎逻辑的预期是价格最终会按比例上涨。
However, consumer inflation of pet food products hasn’t soared in Mexico. In the first eight months of 2021, pet food consumer inflation averaged just 4.2% on an annualized monthly basis, according to the National Statistics Institute (INEGI). Moreover, that figure is lower than for the same period in 2020, when it reached 4.7%.
然而,墨西哥宠物食品的消费通胀并未飙升。根据美国国家统计局 (INEGI) 的数据,在 2021 年前八个月,宠物食品消费者的年化通胀率平均仅为 4.2%。此外,这一数字低于 2020 年同期的 4.7%。
In Mexico, high pet food inflation occurred in June 2017 when prices climbed 13% in annual terms. Yet, six months later, pet food inflation dropped to 4.8%. Since then, inflation has not reached 6% or more. A relevant question might be, why is pet food not experiencing high inflation when the economy is?
在墨西哥,宠物食品的高通胀发生在 2017 年 6 月,当时价格每年上涨 13%。然而,六个月后,宠物食品通胀下降至 4.8%。从那以后,通货膨胀率没有达到6%或更高。一个相关的问题可能是,为什么宠物食品在经济高涨的时候没有经历高通胀?
Is official pet food inflation data reliable?
官方宠物食品通胀数据可靠吗?
To estimate the pet food inflation index, INEGI collects hundreds of price points for 44 dog and cat food brands nationwide, including a few product varieties of the leading brands such as Dog and Cat Chow (Purina), Pedigree and Whiskas (Mars).
为了估算宠物食品通胀指数,INEGI 收集了全国 44 个狗和猫食品品牌的数百个价格点,其中包括 Dog and Cat Chow (Purina)、Pedigree 和 Whiskas (Mars) 等领先品牌的几个产品品种。
However, according to Triplethree estimates, the brands in the official pet food inflation index represent only about 60% of the overall local pet food market. The remaining 40% of brands are not covered in the index.
然而,据 Triplethree 估计,官方宠物食品通胀指数中的品牌仅占当地整体宠物食品市场的 60% 左右。其余 40% 的品牌未包含在该指数中。
Likely, those excluded brands are increasing in price faster than the market leaders, as their negotiating power across the supply chain is less than that of the leaders. The excluded brands are mainly regional, emerging and smaller players.
很可能,这些被排除在外的品牌的价格上涨速度快于市场领导者,因为它们在整个供应链中的谈判能力低于领导者。被排除在外的品牌主要是区域性、新兴和较小的参与者。
Pet food rising inflation may happen in due time
宠物食品上涨通胀可能适时发生
Regardless of the relatively low official inflation in the first eight months of 2021, the supply price shocks will probably continue impacting the pet food industry until the end of the year and during 2022.
尽管 2021 年前八个月的官方通货膨胀率相对较低,供应价格冲击可能会继续影响宠物食品行业,直到今年年底和 2022 年期间。
Thus, eventually, official pet food inflation figures might better reflect the increasing pressure on pet food prices, as the market leaders and other brands represented in the index may have to raise their prices faster.
因此,最终,官方宠物食品通胀数据可能会更好地反映宠物食品价格面临的日益增加的压力,因为该指数中的市场领导者和其他品牌可能不得不更快地提高价格。